Thursday, August 31, 2006

Dry Run

A little Thursday-morning quarterbacking on Ernesto.
At one point, the forecast pointed toward Texas or Louisiana. Ernesto flopped ashore on Plantation Key.

For a while, it was supposed to arrive as a Category 1 hurricane. It barely made it as a tropical storm.

It was expected to produce flooding rain. It delivered less rain than a thunderstorm.

Day after day, Ernesto disobeyed forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center. So . . . what happened?

In a nutshell: When it came to Ernesto, forecasters at the hurricane center -- and nearly everywhere else -- crashed into the limits of technology and scientific knowledge.

''Until the science gets better, we have to deal with some uncertainty in these forecasts,'' said Craig Fugate, the state's longtime director of emergency management.
Apparently some of the TV stations got angry phone calls from viewers for the breathless coverage they gave Ernesto on Tuesday and Wednesday -- and pre-empting the soaps until 2 AM Thursday morning (here's a tip, folks...VCR or TiVo).

I'd rather be safe than sorry, and if it means I have to hit the Mute button when Lonny Quinn and Bob Mayer O.D. on vamping blather over at Channel 6, so be it. Next time we may not be so lucky.
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