It's the GOP's Turn

The Republicans were all aquiver at the beginning of the month as the Democratic primary in Connecticut played out the Lieberman/Lamont battle, and there were dire predictions from the likes of Cokie Roberts as how the Lamont victory was a "disaster" for the Democrats.

But as certain bloggers pointed out at the time, the GOP has their own little "disaster" waiting for them in Rhode Island as right-winger Steve Laffey challenges moderate incumbent Sen. Lincoln Chafee.

The Laffey-Chafee Republican showdown Sept. 12 is the next chapter in the turbulent 2006 election saga. A spate of primary upsets -- especially Ned Lamont's victory over Democratic Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman in Connecticut -- have signaled that no incumbent is safe in a year when voters are agitating for change. With his spirited campaign against Sen. Chafee, Laffey is trying to push that frustration one step further. He wants to turn his race into a referendum on personality and attitude.

Rhode Island is a solidly Democratic state, but it does elect moderate Republicans such as Chafee and his late father, the veteran GOP Sen. John Chafee. During his seven-year tenure, "Linc" has distinguished himself as one of the Senate's least partisan members. Modest and soft-spoken, he has broken with his party on tax cuts, judicial nominations and environmental issues, and he was the only Republican senator to vote against the Iraq war.

In terms of temperament and political style, Laffey is Chafee's opposite -- confrontational and impatient, a working-class kid who scoffs at his opponent's patrician pedigree. Laffey dismisses the senator's careful approach to legislating as a big reason Congress cannot get anything done.

"He's become irrelevant," Laffey said of Chafee in a recent radio debate. "I work hard at good relations with everyone," Chafee responded.

The similarities between the Connecticut race -- both in terms of personality and politics -- are pretty clear; an incumbent senator who often breaks with his party versus a challenger being promoted by a group that is outside of the party structure. But the end result could be more a disaster for the Republicans. After all, if Joe Lieberman wins as an independent in Connecticut, he will still -- nominally -- be a Democrat. But if Laffey wins the Republican primary in Rhode Island, the chances are that he will lose in the general election to Sheldon Whitehouse, the Democratic nominee, giving the Democrats one of the five seats they need to win back the majority in the Senate.

The National Review is on record as saying that it's more important for them to run a doctrinaire True Believer than to actually win the race. In either party, that mindset has disaster written all over it, but in Rhode Island it could actually make a difference.