An ambiguous, somewhat cryptic statement issued Tuesday night in Fidel Castro's name said his health was "stable" and "my spirit is perfectly fine." But it also contained clues that a complete recovery might not be certain.According to one rumor, Fidel is sharing a hospital room with General Franco...
"A real evolution of the state of one's health requires the passing of time," the statement said. "The most I could say is that the situation will remain stable for many days before a verdict can be delivered."
That left Cubans on both sides of the Florida Straits still in limbo today, seeking answers to two basic yet monumental questions:
Can Castro stage a full recovery from the unspecified intestinal bleeding that required an emergency operation? Is Cuba finally on the cusp of change after 47 years of repression?
National Assembly President Ricardo Alarcón said the "final moment is still very far away." U.S. officials said they believed Castro is still alive.
But no new pictures surfaced, no other proof was offered -- not even what hospital he's in -- and Castro's brother and the inheritor of his power, Raúl, also remained out of sight. Fidel Castro is 79; his brother, 75.
Meanwhile, there's intense discussion as to what's going on behind the scenes.
There are three possible scenarios about ailing Cuban leader Fidel Castro's apparent decision to temporarily hand over power to his younger brother Raúl, two of which may lead to a lengthy withdrawal from at least some of the absolute powers he has held for nearly five decades.Being dead could be considered in a "stable condition," and "in good spirits" could mean being pickled in formaldehyde.
• The what-you-see-is-what-you-get scenario: The Cuban regime is telling the truth, and Castro will be back in a few months, retaking control of the government when he is physically able to do so.
Supporting argument: There would be nothing terribly unusual about a 79-year-old ruler just coming back from a grueling trip abroad suffering "extreme stress" leading to a "severe intestinal crisis," as the statement signed by Castro and read over Cuban television on Monday says. And there would be nothing strange about him "temporarily handing over power" to his younger brother and most trusted lieutenant while he recovers.
• The coverup scenario: Castro is totally incapacitated, perhaps dead, and the regime made the announcement Monday to win time and get a provisional government in place.
Supporting argument: While Castro was quoted by Cuban television on Tuesday as saying that he is "in stable condition" and "in good spirits" after his operation, he was not heard nor seen on the screen. Much like when his first communiqué was made public Monday, the statement was read by a Cuban official.
If Castro were able to make Monday's announcement himself, he would have probably done it. It would have been the most reassuring signal to his followers that he was in command and that he would only step back for a limited time to undergo surgery. It didn't happen that way.
• The trial-balloon scenario: Castro made it all up to test whether anybody in his inner circle makes a wrong move, and to get rid of potential reformists who won't respect his wishes.
Supporting argument: Many Cubans on the island, used to the tricks of Cuba's secret police, tend to lend credence to this possibility. In a telephone call Tuesday, Vladimiro Roca -- a known dissident whose father was one of the founders of Cuba's Communist Party -- told me the climate in Havana is one of profound suspicion about the statement. "People are skeptical," he said. "Fidel Castro is known for not having any kind of boundaries and to do things nobody expects him to do."
Yesterday Luke asked me what was going on here in Miami; he imagined that there was some wild celebration going on. Yes, in some places, especially if there was a TV camera crew in the neighborhood, but for the rest of the community there’s been a lot of somber discussion and furtive phone calls as rumors fly. I am convinced that when Castro hops the twig things are going to get worse in Cuba, not better, for at least a while. There will be a lot of uncertainty and a lot of people will want to get out of Havana, especially those who were either high up in the government and don’t want to see if the populace turns nasty, which means they’ll call out the guard; and of course they’ll crack down on the excuse that we’re just over the horizon waiting to invade. Expect a lot of rafters to try to get out.
If the embargo was lifted tomorrow, expect to see a lot of internal struggle as those who came to Miami try to go back to reclaim their property. They will be greeted with scorn by those who toughed it out, and the ex-pats will find themselves in a country that doesn’t have working plumbing. The younger generation won’t want to go back; you think they’ll give up their Lexuses and cell phones to live in a place were the biffy is a bucket in the corner and the newest car in town is a 1959 Buick? I think not.
This nation's history with Castro is a testament to the folly of making our foreign policy personal or at least about the man, not the system. Castro is/was a horrible guy no doubt, but it kind of makes it odd to be able to make nice with the Chinese – remember Tiananmen Square – or the Vietnamese – remember the war – and yet still battle the Cold War as if it was 1955 in Cuba. This isn’t a partisan issue; both parties have had their heads handed to them for even appearing to make a move towards reconciliation. If it wasn’t for los historicos here in Miami, we’d have had McDonald’s in Havana in 1964, and we wouldn’t be on the outside looking in when the millions of Cubans suddenly want to buy car parts.
There’s a thought: the richest guy in the world will be the guy who opens the first NAPA store in Cuba.
