Adios, Fidel?

[Updated below.]

A fellow Miami blogger, Babalu, is reporting conflicting rumors that Fidel Castro is dead. No, I mean really dead this time.

Yeah, we've heard it before only to find out that he's not. I have a colleague at work with connections as good as Babalu's that says he's been dead for a year and that his brother Ramon has been doing the stand-in routine.

If it's really true, it's going to be an interesting couple of days in Miami. As luck would have it, I'm in Canada right now. (If I wanted to risk the wrath of the U.S. Treasury Department, I could drive over to Toronto tomorrow morning and catch an Air Canada flight to Havana at 10:15 a.m. and get the straight poop.)

I would be just as happy as anyone to see the old guy fall off the perch, but I don't think it would mean that the embargo would be lifted the next day or that everyone here who's been waiting since 1959 could go back and pick up where they left off. In fact, I have a feeling that with the uncertainty of the future of the government down there, we'd probably see a lot of people trying to get out of Cuba. And since a lot of the embargo's structures are written into law, the embargo and travel restrictions can't be lifted overnight, even if the United States wanted to, which is unlikely. His brother Raul has been the nominal jefe since Fidel underwent surgery a year ago, and other than not having a beard, Raul's rule has been indistinguishable from his brother's. If Fidel is really dead, Raul is still in charge. According to the people I have talked to, Raul is Fidel without the charisma, so the relationship between the U.S. and Cuba would essentially be status quo. The embargo and travel restrictions would remain, and we start all over again. Meet the new boss--same as the old boss.

So, mi amigos, don't start packing and dusting off the deeds to the beach house in Varadero just yet. Trust me, as much as I hope it's true, I'll wait until we see the body.

Update: If it's Friday, it must be "Castro Is Dead" Rumor Day.