My best wishes to all for a good year and many more after.
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- If you thought 2010 was the year of gridlock, Hell No You Can't, and strange pronouncements from political characters and punditry, that was only the curtain raiser. With the House in the hands of the far-right and the Tea Party unmoved and unimpressed with reality, we're going to be constantly entertained, horrified, disgusted, and gob-smacked. Speaker of the House John Boehner will be dealing with a group of people who resemble a classroom full of sugared-up eight-year-olds. All the attempts to repeal every bill passed by a Democratic president since 1960 will energize the base only to have them ground to a fine powder and blown away by the Senate or a veto pen. There will be heroic, if not Pyrrhic, attempts to cut spending and bring down the deficit, but the crazies are driving the bus and as long as they do, it's going to look more like a pie fight than civil discourse. The DREAM Act will not pass; Republicans need someone to beat up on, and immigrants, like Muslims, are easy pickings since they know that they'll never vote for the GOP. Meanwhile, they'll keep up the kinderspiel of doing things like reading the Constitution while constantly trying to subvert it and re-write it, especially when they get to the part about "equal rights under the law." Of course they believe in that... as long as you're white, straight, and Christian. There will be hundreds of subpoenas issued by House committees to investigate everything in the Obama White House, up to and including the bidding process for the swing set built for the Obama children. If you want to make a fortune in this economy, graduate law school in January, pass the bar exam, and move to Washington.Nailed it. That was kind of an easy one, because if there's one thing that's easy to predict, it's the behavior of the Republicans. They dug in their heels on simple things like passing bills to support the responders to September 11, 2001 and autism research just because the president supported them, while out at the state level, newly-elected governors took their elections as mandates to enact new bills that overreached and angered even their own supporters. It was a year of hostage-taking and childish tantrums, hypocrisy and schadenfreude, race-baiting, women-hating, and gay-bashing, and we haven't even gotten past the candidates who are running for the GOP nomination.
- The economy will continue to improve, albeit slowly. That's how they do it; they go in cycles, and especially after this last Great Recession, there will be a lot of changes, just as there was after every economic downturn. A year from now the unemployment number will be around 8%, which is still high, but on the track to be lower by the time the 2012 election comes around.I give myself a B on that one. The unemployment rate is allegedly at 8.6% nationally, but it's still in the teens for black men, and it's still higher than that in some states. Here in Florida it's getting a little better in spite of Gov. Rick Scott's gutting of many programs and throwing a lot of state workers out of jobs.
- Of course Sarah Palin will announce she's running for president. We've known that since the day after the 2008 election. Her competition will include Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Newt Gingrich, and just for the fun of it, John Bolton. A year from now, we'll be weeks away from the Iowa caucuses. President Obama will not have a serious primary challenger. The "professional left" is a pale shadow of a threat compared to the hard-core on the right; when they form a circular firing squad, they usually end up winging it.Half right on that in that Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich would be in the running, but I should have known that Sarah Palin had neither the attention span or the maturity to make a valid attempt to run for office. But I was pleasantly surprised to see that her replacements -- Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, and Herman Cain -- would be just as entertaining.
- We're going to see more progress on gay equality, but at about the same pace as this year. Court cases challenging the Defense of Marriage Act will make it to the federal level, and Perry vs. Schwarzenegger will be appealed to the Supreme Court no matter the outcome of the current appeal, and it should land on the steps in Washington in time for the 2012 term. By then, perhaps, Antonin Scalia will be retired and living in Sicily. Based on the make-up of the House and Senate, you can forget about passing the Employment Non-Discrimination Act (ENDA).I give myself an A- on that; the Prop 8 case hasn't made it to the U.S. Supreme Court yet, but a lot more progress is being made, including the Senate voting out a bill to repeal DOMA. The end of DADT in September was a huge achievement.
- Florida politics will be fun to watch. Gov. Rick Scott will get a lot of stuff through the legislature since they're all Republicans, but it will be interesting to see what he does with the economy since it's the only thing bigger than his personal wealth. At some point even he and the legislature will figure out that cutting taxes and services will hit the wall, and even Republicans send their kids to public schools and take prescription medicines. I give it until June before some kind of scandal about cronyism and questionable dealings hits the state; it's in their DNA. And in Miami-Dade politics, it would be an event if there wasn't a scandal, threats of recalls, and some people doing the Miranda macarena.That Rick Scott isn't under indictment isn't a surprise, but neither is his approval level, which is about the same as that of the ebola virus. His regime of voter registration laws and drug testing for welfare benefits are facing lawsuits, and his slashing of education funding in favor of corporate tax relief and charter schools has decimated public education to the point that he's rapidly trying to recover. Locally, Miami went through a recall and run-off election for the county mayor, and the cronyism at the high levels got so rampant that even the Miami Herald wrote about it. In other words, just another year in South Florida.
- Another perennial favorite: This will be the year that Cuba will see some big changes, through the passing of one or more of the Castro brothers and the de facto relaxation of the U.S. embargo to the point that by next year, Cuba will be like Vietnam; nominally Communist but practically capitalist. (I've been saying that privately since 1989, though.)Right prediction, wrong region: what I wanted for Cuba landed in the Middle East, so we got rid of dictators in Tunis, Libya, Egypt, and we're working on Syria and Yemen. Next year in Havana....
- Personal predictions... the same, I hope, as last year: I will keep writing, I will continue to go to Inge and to Stratford, I'll still be driving the Mustang, the Pontiac will still be in the garage. If I upgrade my technology, it will be to get a Samsung 42" flat screen HDTV, assuming I can come up with the money for it.I am nothing if not predictable. All came true, with the exception that the HDTV is 32".
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Nobody of whom I'm aware ever thought of President Obama as Mr. Happy Fun Guy. The last guy, you may recall, was bouncy and gregarious and handed out alpha-male frat-boy nicknames, and then he got in there and screwed up the country. Moreover, if there are five people of value who still care what James Carville — let alone Gerald Rafshoon — thinks about anything, I don't know them. But perhaps the singular failure of this particular "White House Memo" is its argument that things would be better all around if the president had "reached out" to the Congress. Good god, there are even some Democrats in there saying it, which is a very good indication of the problems the president has, none of which will be solved by some discreet hand-holding over the canapes at Ben and Sally's.We've heard this complaint from the Beltway before; the last time was about the Clintons, who were portrayed as the Your Worst Nightmare: White Trash with Money, and before that, Jimmy Carter, who was seen as too uptight and Jesusy to hang out with the vodka-and-tonic crowd. With the Obamas, the reaction seems to be along the lines of "What makes them so uppity that they can't be seen to be tipping their hat to us?"
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Our late and much missed comrade in blogging, journalist and writer Al Weisel, revered and admired across the bandwidth as the “reasonable conservative” blogger Modest Jon Swift, was a champion of the lesser known and little known bloggers working tirelessly in the shadows...My submission was my tribute to playwright Lanford Wilson, who died in March.
One of his projects was a year-end Blogger Round Up. Al/Jon asked bloggers far and wide, famous and in- and not at all, to submit a link to their favorite post of the past twelve months and then he sorted, compiled, blurbed, hyperlinked and posted them on his popular blog. His round-ups presented readers with a huge banquet table of links to work many of has had missed the first time around and brought those bloggers traffic and, more important, new readers they wouldn’t have otherwise enjoyed.
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He is the real austerity candidate, the guy who will run the ball here for the banksters who are crippling Europe, and a lot of Europeans, with economic strategies that keep themselves afloat while children die of preventable diseases, and guaranteeing that whatever recoveries there will be in places like Ireland and the UK will be the sole property of the people who most deserve them. This is what Willard Romney would like to bring to America. He just has to convince enough people that the pain will be imposed upon the undeserving Them. It is a vicious puppet show of a campaign he's running.If you think that's harsh, you should be reading what the right-wingers are saying about Mr. Romney. The True Believers are lining up their arguments to drive home the theory that No True Conservative would vote for him, and even the virulent hatred of Barack Obama may not persuade them.
He is really the only true class warrior in the race. He's counting on prejudice and ignorance because he is running in the Republican primaries and that's the coin of the realm. But he's also counting on the desperate dreams of desperate people who want to believe that there is a big bag of money out there that's going to the Wrong People, and that, if someone would only re-direct it, their lives would be better. Well, there is a big bag of money out there, and it is indeed going to the Wrong People, and those would be the people in whose company Willard Romney has spent his entire, cosseted, entitled existence. He has embarked on a divisive campaign of misdirection, hoping against hope that nobody notices that he mortgaged himself to his ambition on an adjustable rate, and that he's underwater on his soul.
There are a lot of issues with trying to run a candidate who doesn't seem to have any core principles. It makes it impossible for his supporters to get excited about him because you can't fall in love with a weathervane. Even worse, since politicians tend to be such liars anyway and you know Romney has no firm beliefs, it's very easy for everyone to assume the worst. Democrats will feel that Romney will be a right wing death-beast. Republicans will think that Romney will screw them over. Independents won't know what to believe, which will make the hundreds of millions that Obama will spend on attack ads particularly effective. Ronald Reagan famously said the GOP needed "a banner of no pale pastels, but bold colors." That's particularly relevant when it comes to Mitt Romney who has proven to be a pasty grey pile of formless mush.So there you have it. Get the popcorn.
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The latest Gallup survey shows that 47 percent of Americans now say they approve of the way that President Obama is handling his job. This is a 5 percent improvement since the Dec. 16-18 Gallup survey and marks the first time the president’s numbers have been in positive territory since July. The number of Americans who say they disapprove of Obama’s job performance has fallen to 45 percent, down 5 points from Dec. 16-18.Sweet dreams are made of these.
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Between 1984 and 2009, the median net worth of a member of the House more than doubled, according to the analysis of financial disclosures, from $280,000 to $725,000 in inflation-adjusted 2009 dollars, excluding home equity.They call that a "wealth gap." It sounds more like a canyon.
Over the same period, the wealth of an American family has declined slightly, with the comparable median figure sliding from $20,600 to $20,500, according to the Panel Study of Income Dynamics from the University of Michigan.
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On the evening of Oct. 4, 1990, Newt Gingrich and his then-wife, Marianne, were enjoying a VIP reception at a Republican fundraiser when they were suddenly hustled over to have their picture taken with President George H.W. Bush.Therein lies the essence of Newt Gingrich. There is no doubt that Mr. Gingrich revolted on the 1990 Republicans because of his policy differences; he did it because he saw an opportunity to make a name for himself and grab the headlines. That's all. He does not and never did care a rat's ass about the welfare of the country beyond what he can get out of it. With him it's all about power and acquiring more of it. That explains his narcissism, his hypocrisy, and his calculations to do anything that will gain him the upper hand in any negotiation.
“I thought it was a bad idea,” Gingrich said in a series of interviews in 1992 that have not been previously published.
Days earlier, Gingrich had dramatically walked out of the White House and was leading a very public rebellion against a deficit reduction and tax increase deal that Bush and top congressional leaders of both parties — including, they thought, Gingrich — had signed off on after months of tedious negotiations. The House was to vote on the deal the very next day.
“We went over and I said [to Bush], ‘I’m really sorry that this is happening,’ and he said with as much pain as I’ve heard from a politician, ‘You’re killing us, you are just killing us.’ ”
The photo was snapped, Gingrich and his wife took their seats for dinner, “and both of us just felt like crying,” he said.
Gingrich’s revolt highlighted a rift that persists to this day within the Republican Party, between a pragmatic establishment open to dealmaking and a more rigid conservative base that prefers purity over compromise.
[...]
Gingrich’s defiance and high-visibility debut as provocateur in 1990 was a decisive moment for him. It was the first chance he had to exercise real political power, providing an early glimpse of the complexity and the contradictions that he has displayed since.
Bush’s budget director, the late Richard G. Darman, said that the White House was not given serious notice that Gingrich would balk at the deal and that his revolt was “an act of political sabotage.” In one 1992 memo, Darman wrote in capital letters of the “1990 GINGRICH STAB IN THE BACK.”
Gingrich was unrepentant, arguing that he had a higher purpose. “It was destructive,” he acknowledged, but necessary to stop Bush and others from making deals with Democrats.
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Surely, during one of the most severe economic downturns in our nation’s history, Americans of all stripes fastidiously check their paystubs to calculate exactly how much withholding the local, state and federal governments are taking. What’s that? You don’t? You didn’t know that payroll taxes have been reduced by two percent since the beginning of last year?One of the things that drives me crazy about President Obama and the Democrats is that they routinely fail to drive home their own accomplishments. They let the Mighty Wurlitzer of Fox News and the orcosphere carry on with lies about "massive tax hikes" and "death panels" and the "failed healthcare law" when the reality is that tax rates went down under the first stimulus plan and again with the extension of the Bush tax cuts a year ago. The healthcare law is already touching millions of lives, including kids being carried on their parents' insurance and the doughnut hole being closed for seniors on Medicare. But it's really hard to hear about those successes and accomplishments over the roar of the whackos, especially when the president himself doesn't raise his voice.
Well you do now. And that’s the big bonus to the Obama victory on the payroll tax cut, a previously lesser known component of the 2010 deal on the Bush tax cut extension. The very public fight over the legislation has been won by Democrats eyeing traction in 2012, igniting media interest in the policy and subsequent image of the House GOP with political egg on their face.
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Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Texas Gov. Rick Perry have failed to qualify for Virginia's March 6 Republican primary.Mr. Gingrich did what any mature adult would do in a situation like this: he blamed it on the state of Virginia instead of his campaign, and immediately vowed to start a write-in campaign. Small problem; Virginia doesn't allow write-ins on primary ballots.
The Republican Party of Virginia announced late Friday and early Saturday that Gingrich and Perry fell short of the 10,000 signatures of registered voters required for a candidate's name to be on the ballot.
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Texas Rep. Ron Paul met the threshold and will be on the ballot.
Failure to compete in Virginia, which is among the "Super Tuesday" primaries, would deal a huge blow to any contender who had not locked up the nomination by then.
“Newt and I agreed that the analogy is December 1941,” campaign director Michael Krull said in a message posted to Facebook. “We have experienced an unexpected set-back, but we will re-group and re-focus with increased determination, commitment and positive action. Throughout the next months there will be ups and downs; there will be successes and failures; there will be easy victories and difficult days - but in the end we will stand victorious.”So a failure on the part of a local campaign to get enough signatures on petitions is comparable to an attack that killed over 1,500 Americans and plunged us into World War II? Excuse me, but I think your hyperbole is leaking all over the floor.
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Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy
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Sarah Palin even opined on the issue on Fox.Yeah, you guessed it. Both Bush and Reagan sent out "holiday" cards with no mention of Christmas or Jesus. So did John F. Kennedy and and Lyndon Johnson. Maybe it's because they, like most sane people, know that not everyone in America is religious, Christian, or a far-right-wing nitwit.
"It's odd," Palin said, wondering why the president's Christmas card highlights his dog instead of traditions like "family, faith and freedom."
If she's upset about that, wait till she sees the ones from George W. Bush and Ronald Reagan.
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Under a deal reached between House and Senate leaders, the House will now approve as early as Friday the two-month extension of a payroll tax holiday and unemployment benefits approved by the Senate last Saturday, and the Senate will appoint members of a House-Senate conference committee to negotiate legislation to extend both benefits through 2012.I doubt that the Republicans will learn anything from this. In fact, the next time it's going to make the teabaggers even more intransigent, especially now that they see that John Boehner can be rolled. If I were him, I'd keep an eye on Eric Cantor; there's a touch of Brutus going on there.
House Republicans — who rejected an almost identical deal on Tuesday — collapsed under the political rubble that has accumulated over the week, much of it from their own party, worried that the blockade would do serious damage to their appeal to voters.
The House speaker, John A. Boehner, determined to put the issue behind his party, announced the decision over the phone to members on Thursday, and did not permit the usual back and forth that is common on such calls, enraging many of them.
After his conversation with lawmakers, the speaker conceded to reporters that it might not have been “politically the smartest thing in the world” for House Republicans to put themselves between a tax cut and the 160 million American workers who would benefit from it, and to allow President Obama and Congressional Democrats to seize the momentum on the issue.
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The gay and lesbian community of Minnesota has issued a letter of apology to recently resigned Senate Majority Leader Amy Koch for ruining the institution of marriage and causing her to stray from her husband and engage in an "inappropriate relationship."Here's the whole letter.
"On behalf of all gays and lesbians living in Minnesota, I would like to wholeheartedly apologize for our community's successful efforts to threaten your traditional marriage," reads the letter from John Medeiros. "We apologize that our selfish requests to marry those we love has cheapened and degraded traditional marriage so much that we caused you to stray from your own holy union for something more cheap and tawdry."
The letter comes on the heels of Koch's own apology, released yesterday, in which she expressed her deep regret for "engaging in a relationship with a Senate staffer." Although the letter did not specify the identity of the other participant in the "inappropriate relationship," it is widely rumored to be former communications chief Michael Brodkorb, who lost several positions with the GOP in the wake of the scandal.
Koch, Brodkorb, and their fellow Republicans campaigned this year to put a constitutional amendment on next year's ballot to define marriage as the union between a man and a woman, thus forbidding gay marriage. Sadly, the amendment comes too late to prevent Koch from straying from her own marriage.
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America turns off the lights, goes to bed, leaving their Mercedes in the driveway. While we sleep, the Republicans sneak into the car, drive it off, and sell it, but they keep the Mercedes hood ornament. They then split the proceeds between their rich buddies, and go out and find a Ford Pinto up on cinderblocks in a field, with the grass growing through the floorboard. They place that in the driveway, cleverly glue the Mercedes ornament onto the front of the Pinto, and sneak off into the night. The next morning, America and Democrats are screaming “What the hell happened to my car.” Republicans say “What are you talking about, there is your Mercedes right there, we just modernized it and fixed it up a bit for long-term financial stability,” and point at the Pinto.Here's the funny thing... if Politifact read that excuse from a candidate or a political party, they'd probably rate it as Pants on Fire themselves.
Then, the rocket scientists at Politifact drive by to take a non-partisan look at things, see the Mercedes symbol on the front of the car, and tell us all we’re lying about the Republicans stealing our Mercedes.
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